Revised Fed Outlook

The article discusses the increasing likelihood of a recession in the United States, spurred by the economic policies of the Trump administration, particularly tariff wars and sweeping cuts. The piece highlights the shift from a perceived low risk of recession at the beginning of the year to a tangible threat. The analysis points to a growing divergence between the financial markets, fueled by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the underlying real economy. The article details several indicators suggesting economic weakening, including declining manufacturing output, reduced business investment, and a slowdown in consumer spending. The impact of the trade war with China is emphasized, with the imposition of tariffs disrupting global supply chains and increasing costs for businesses and consumers. It also notes the potential for these trade disputes to escalate further, exacerbating the economic slowdown. find the original article here: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2025/03/20/hzqk-m20.html